Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD remains below $34.00 after Fed rate decision
- Silver price faced headwinds as the Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25%–4.5% on Wednesday
- The non-yielding Silver may have found support as US Treasury yields declined.
- Silver lease rates have surged due to shrinking stockpiles in London.
Silver price (XAG/USD) holds onto gains after a previous session of losses, trading around $33.80 per troy ounce during Asian hours on Thursday. However, the non-interest-bearing metal faces pressure following the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision.
As widely expected, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25%–4.5% during its March meeting but reaffirmed its outlook for two rate cuts later this year. This stance aligns with forecasts of slower GDP growth and higher unemployment, counterbalancing concerns over rising inflation in the United States (US), potentially driven by aggressive tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump.
Silver, a non-yielding asset, may have found support as US Treasury yields declined, with the 2-year yield at 3.97% and the 10-year yield at 4.24%. Meanwhile, bonds gained traction following the Fed’s decision to slow the pace of quantitative tightening, citing concerns over reduced liquidity and potential risks tied to government debt limits.
Silver lease rates have surged due to shrinking stockpiles, particularly in London, as Silver flows toward the US to capitalize on higher prices. Banks and traders lease Silver to ensure short-term liquidity for trading or operational needs.
This shift has widened price gaps between major markets, with spot silver up 17% this year, outperforming other commodities. Additionally, physical Silver transfers from Canada and Mexico are strained by tariffs, further tightening supply. Growing fears of a “silver squeeze” could disrupt trade for months.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.